It’s Just a Theory

Dear Erin,

So great to talk with you today. I’m checking the dates we discussed and will let you know which one works best. I am looking forward to seeing you soon!

As I mentioned on the phone, all good here. I have quite a few projects that I’m managing concurrently, all nonprofit consulting work. (I expect that I’ll bring some of it with me when we visit next month).

Despite seemingly disparate topics, all the projects touch on aspects of the “theory of change” model. I have been thinking about that framework quite a bit, and now I’m not so sure about it, to be honest.  I’ll be in the car quite a bit tomorrow and will use the time to think and process. I expect to publish a post about it on my business website Monday.

In the meantime, I thought I’d use this space to run through what the theory of change model actually is. That will give you some context should you be curious as to why your Mom doesn’t like it anymore!! Seriously, I have written more than one grant that asked me specifically to delineate our organization’s theory of change,” so you might fund the following description useful.

Theory of Change in layman’s terms is essentially a flow chart that maps your idea for how you want to change the world all the way to the impact you are having that actually IS changing the world.

Here’s how it goes:

Approach > inputs > activities > outputs > outcomes > impact > mission

For example:

[Approach] Start a food pantry > [Inputs] source food, volunteers, and money > [Activities] distribute food at the pantry> [Output] stay open 4 days a week and serve 2,000 people > [Outcome] distributed food provides meals for 8,000 > [Impact] those meals alleviate hunger and poverty > [Mission] all in service of your charitable purpose to reducing food insecurity.

It’s a helpful tool because it separates out and defines ACTIVITIES, OUTPUT, OUTCOME, and IMPACT as distinct things. What’s also so interesting is that these four aspects plus the all-important INPUT are distinct from approach and mission. They are the in-between.

Your mission is the change you want to see. Your approach is how you plan to do that.

Be super clear about those two things first. Your activities are interesting, but you don’t lead with activities when describing what your organization does. Hah - that sounds counterintuitive, even as I write it. What do I mean the activities are not what you do? Of course that’s what you do; you do that every day.

Sure, but when you are writing a grant or marketing your organization or talking to a donor, you don’t lead with a menu of program dates and activities. You start with something at a higher level. We feed the hungry in our community through a food pantry. That’s a more meaningful thing to say than “we distribute food at such-and-such address on weekday afternoons.” Too specific. And, BTW, you might do something else next quarter - maybe meals on wheels, a community garden, who knows. Your current programs are the manifestation of your approach - your theory for how to change the world. And remember Simon Sinek: “people don’t buy what you do, they buy why you do it.” Your activities are what you do day in and day out, but they are not why you do it. Your approach and mission are your WHY. When people ask “what does your organization do?” don’t be fooled. They really are asking why you do it.

Another important distinction is output and outcome. Output is simply the facts, the numbers, the demographics. We gave out 10,000 pounds of food. That’s an output. Outcome is how it turned out for the people who participated. 2,000 people received food which fed a total of 8,000 family members who didn’t have any other options. That’s outcome.

Impact is something else entirely. Did you actually start to change the world even a little bit? Did you have an impact on the problem you are trying to solve? Did the food you provided 2,000 families help them reduce immediate food insecurity? Did it help bridge a time of crisis so that they eventually could get to place of food security? Both? That’s impact.

One trick nonprofits like to use in Annual Reports (aka Impact Reports) is to mix and match output, outcome and impact metrics. You’ll see that page we all have listing how many programs, service hours, participants, locations, whatever (output).  You may see satisfaction survey results or retention rates, graduation rates or GPAs (outcome). All important. But you also need impact metrics, which demonstrate the change you are trying to make.

Good impact metrics are really, really hard to get right. Often you need longitudinal data  to know whether the work you are doing really mattered in the end. Did you really impact that young person’s life with that awesome extracurricular program they attended when they were a teen?  Often, the answer is yes, but how to prove it? It’s useful to narrowly define your intended impact.

More commonly, we use metrics we believe are causal. For example, an organization might be focused on getting kids into college (an outcome) because on average college graduates are more financially successful in life (impact). A job placement service celebrates number of people who obtained jobs through them (outcome) with statistics that say the people they serve typically cannot access the job market on their own - turning an outcome measure into an impact measure.

Let’s try dance.

You have a mission of empowering artists to create impactful art.

Your approach is a modern dance company that centers the artist.

Your activities are choreography, performances, classes, and events that build the dance community.

Your output is the quantity of all of the above, the number of artists you work with and include in community, the hours you put in, and the audience size.

Your outcome is going to be measured in tough-to-count ways. Satisfaction, critical acclaim, community engagement, community growth, comparative statistics that show your “empowered artist” model is more successful / sustainable / well-received in the community than other models.

Your impact is really hard to measure - as is all art. By IRS definition, your charitable purpose is to create art for the public good plus you’ve stated a mission of creating “impactful art”. Therefore, you have to prove that your artistic work is positively impacting the world around you. You’ll probably need some way to count public engagement (in person and online), quality of the art you are producing, class size, student feedback, and positive leverage within the dance world (for example, other dance companies are licensing your choreography).

You may be able to find some causal metrics, such as local art powers economic development or improves societal mental health or quality of life. If an empower-the-artist organization is more sustainable and arts in the community enhances the quality of public life, you’ve got something.

When you show that impact, you are proving that your theory of change works: you are using inputs to offer activities that are producing outputs and outcomes that are impacting the world in service to your stated mission.

Back to the projects I’m working on. One is about metrics - so yup, how do you measure outcomes and impact? One is a strategic plan - which asks the question of whether the organization’s theory of change is working. One organization is debating whether to add new  programs (activities) and needs a theory of change analysis to ensure that the proposals are mission-appropriate and not just someone’s pet projects. Yet another is dealing with some internal strife over whether the existing programs have outcomes that map to impact. Finally, we’ve got a messaging challenge at an organization thats cites outputs when funders want to hear outcomes.

Why is the model not sitting right with me? I think it’s the linear depiction of the model, not the elements of the model. But I’ll get back to you on that next week.

Until then, I am proud of you for positively impacting the world!!! Even if I don’t have an impact metric at my fingertips that quantifies it, art, and the movement art you create, makes the world a better place. Your theory of change is changing the world for the better.

Love, Mom